The incompetent modeler

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: ~5 minutes | Last updated:08/25/2025 20:48:42

! PLEASE !

Interrupt me and ask questions or clarifications.

I’m here to talk with you now, not to these slides.

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My preferred (FOSS) flavor of slidedecks, revealjs, has intuitive but none the less unconventional PowerPoint presentation controls:

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This presentation

If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants.
- Sir Isaac Newton

Project Status and Updates

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    section GANTT Chart Key
    Completed task                :done,       des1, 2025-09-01, 20d
    Completed critical task       :crit,done,  des2, after des1, 20d
    Active task                   :active,     des3, after des2, 20d
    Future task                   :            des4, after des3, 20d
    critical task                 :crit,       des5, after des4, 20d

    section Topics
    
    section Deadlines and Events
    Labor Day                     : 2025-09-01, 1d
    Columbus Day                  : 2025-10-13, 1d
    Veterans Day                  : 2025-11-11, 1d
    Thanksgiving                  : 2025-11-27, 1d 
    Finals week                   : 2025-12-08, 5d
    Winter break                  : 2025-12-22, 10d
    MLK Jr. Day                   : 2026-01-19, 1d 
    First day of spring semester  : 2026-01-20, 1d 
    Washington’s Birthday         : 2026-02-16, 1d 
    submission for commencement   : 2026-03-02, 1d 
    Spring break                  : 2026-03-16, 5d 
    Finals week                   : 2026-05-11, 5d
    commencement                  : 2026-05-17, 2d

Risks:

  • 1: I give up, unsustainably miserable.
← likelihood →
1

Progress:

  • I have contributed nothing.
← consequence →

A Statement

I believe a competent modeler can use variations in modeling surface and the uncertainty in parameterizations to reach a suitable equifinality prediction.

Therefore, I find it very hard to find something useful to say in the face of competing objectives and value judgments, and a shameful lack of observation and geographic context.

A Contribution

My contribution to the science is a public, reproducible demonstration of technical and methodological excellence (ha). In order to communicate the nuances surroundings the quantification of accuracy and equifinality of FIM, I introduce concepts including mapping and modeling surfaces, and library creation and access patterns.

Making Sense Around Wicked(ly fun!) Problems

mindmap
  Wicked Problem
    Every problem is unique
      Water is not the same as a biological outbreak
    Every problem is connected to others
      FEWS
    There is no clear problem definition
    Are multi-causal, multi-scaler, and interconnected.
    Include multiple, invested stakeholders with different values, goals, and objectives.
    Straddle organizational and disciplinary boundaries
    Solutions to an aspect have implications/ramifications across the system
    Solutions are not right or wrong, but good and bad
    Can be difficult to measure or evaluate effects of implemented solutions
    Problems are never completely solved
      They are wicked problems, not wicked puzzles

I demonstrate that these are critical factors in the execution of FIModeling, and that with this new framing we can try and make a little more sense around our wicked problem.

Afraid of change? Leave it here.

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