The incompetent modeler

Or: FIM with Jim Worst Graduate Student University of Kansas

Setting the stage History, not Geography Map vs Model Surface Model Bakoff Healing

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Photos are Allowed | Questions are Encouraged

: ~5 minutes | Last updated:06/29/2026 11:09:44

! PLEASE !

Interrupt me and ask questions or clarifications.

I’m here to talk with you now, not to these slides.

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My preferred (FOSS) flavor of slidedecks, revealjs, has intuitive but none the less unconventional PowerPoint presentation controls:

  • Slides dynamically resize to use the entirety of the browser window, but you can still fullscreen with F.
    • This slide has a red border indicating the content extent.
  • Slide navigation is mode dependent. If there are vertical slides, press space, N, or the down arrow key, not the right arrow to advance slides
  • Press M to open to the menu, Press O for the slide deck overview, Press B to black out the presentation screen, Press S for a speaker view.
  • You can use the chalkboard to freemouse/touchpad draw.
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  • Press C to declare victory and head home.2

This presentation

If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants.
- Sir Isaac Newton

Project Status and Updates (updated)

%%---
%%displayMode: compact
%%---
gantt
    dateFormat  YYYY-MM-DD
    title       Yesterdays weather
    excludes    weekends

    section GANTT Chart Key
    Completed task                :done,       des1, 2026-01-26, 10d
    Completed critical task       :crit,done,  des2, after des1, 10d
    Active task                   :active,     des3, after des2, 10d
    Future task                   :            des4, after des3, 10d
    critical task                 :crit,       des5, after des4, 10d

    section Deadlines and Events
    Finals week                        :springfinals, 2026-05-11, 5d
    Complete all requirements          :crit, springsubmit, 2026-05-15, 1d
    Commencement                       :2026-05-17, 2d

Risks:

  • 1: I give up, unsustainably miserable.
  • 2: I think this is what a nervous breakdown feels like.
← likelihood →
1,2

Progress:

  • I have contributed 4400 words of nothing.
  • I am still hurting those I love and respect.
  • Stress knots and eye-twitch, now there’s a stomachache.
  • I have trouble sleeping for more than 3 hours.
← consequence →

Terminology levelset

Libraries can also come in different resolutions and different components. Some libraries include rating curves while others are represented only by elevations or classifications. For a library to be “operational”, it needs to be constructed to a resolution sufficient enough for your objectives, but typically includes many different resolutions and not a handful of predictions

AI Overview: Jargon is the specialized, technical language or vocabulary used by a particular profession, group, or activity…

Metrics

Metric Range Ideal Description Hydrologic Context
CSI 0 to 1 1 \(\frac{TP}{TP + FP + FN}\) Benchmarks for flash flood guidance often peak around 0.20 to 0.44; global models frequently score between 0.4 and 0.6 (Clark et al., 2014; Gerapetritis & Joseph, n.d.).
F1 0 to 1 1 \(\frac{2TP}{2TP + FP + FN}\) Usually higher than CSI. High-performing damage prediction models often achieve 0.76 or higher (ResearchGate, 2026).
POD 0 to 1 1 \(\frac{TP}{TP + FN}\) High POD (e.g., >0.8) is vital for safety, but often comes at the cost of a higher False Alarm Ratio (EUMeTrain, n.d.).
FAR 0 to 1 0 \(\frac{FP}{TP + FP}\) Measures “over-prediction.” A FAR of 0.2 to 0.4 is common in operational settings to avoid “warning fatigue” (Gerapetritis & Joseph, n.d.).

\(\text{Precision} = \frac{\text{True Positives}}{\text{True Positives} + \text{False Positives}}\)

\(\text{F1 Score} = \frac{2 * \text{Precision} * \text{Recall}}{\text{Precision} + \text{Recall}}\)

Status

History

The Problem

HEC-RAS <> RRASSLER <> RAS2FIM <> RAS2REM

Lipstick

Evaluating the impact of lipstick

Conclutions and Contributions

Conclusions

  • FAIR data transformations facilitate complex process integration.
  • Legacy data still has usable information.
  • Illiterate?
  • I really hate computers.

Contributions

  • High-Effort, Low-Value Deliverables.
    • Substantial development hours invested into non-viable or discarded outputs.
    • Superficial UI/UX enhancements applied to fundamentally flawed core architecture (“lipstick on a pig”).
    • Delivered unstable, poorly optimized software with critical runtime and performance issues.
  • Ambiguous and Misused Architectural Concepts - “One mans abstraction is another mans garbage”.
    • Introduced poorly defined terminology (e.g., libraries, access patterns) that only I (frequently mis)use.
    • Failed to communicate a critical separation of concerns between Mapping and Modeling, treating distinct processes interchangeably.
  • Added stress and hurt to all who participated and were adjacent.

Making Sense Around Wicked(ly fun!) Problems

%%{init: {'theme': 'default', 'themeVariables': {'fontFamily': 'Noto, sans-serif'}}}%%
mindmap
  root(("`<center>Wicked<br/>Problem</center>`"))
    Complexity
      id1("`<center>Every problem is unique<br/>E.G.: Water is not the same<br/>as a biological outbreak</center>`")
      id2("`<center>Every problem is connected<br/>to others - E.G.: FEWS</center>`")
      id3("`<center>There is no clear<br/>problem definition</center>`")
      id4("`<center>Are multi-causal, multi-scaler,<br/>and interconnected</center>`")
    Stakeholders
      id5("`<center>Include multiple, invested stakeholders<br/>with different values, goals,<br/>and objectives</center>`")
      id6("`<center>Straddle organizational and<br/>disciplinary boundaries</center>`")
    Solutions
      id7("`<center>Solutions to an aspect have<br/>implications/ramifications<br/>across the system</center>`")
      id8("`<center>Solutions are not right or wrong,<br/>but good and bad</center>`")
      id9("`<center>Can be difficult to measure or evaluate<br/>effects of implemented solutions</center>`")
    Resolution
      id10("`<center>Problems are never<br/>completely solved</center>`")
      id11("`<center>They are wicked problems,<br/>not wicked puzzles</center>`")

I’ve demonstrated that access patterns and library forms are critical factors in the execution of FIModeling, and that with this new framing we can try and make a little more sense around our wicked problem.

Sources

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